25 February 2007

Is the XM/Sirius Merger Going to Happen?

This has been the best news, by far, for both companies. With falling stock prices, there is no room for 2 providers, in order to sustain the cash flows and returns that shareholders want. With the expense of programming contracts (Oprah, Howard Stern, etc.), satellite launches, the industry needs something. So, a possible merger is good news. But, will it happen? That all depends on the FCC and their interpretation on the service provided by XM and Sirius. A while back, Dish Network and Direct TV wanted to merge, but that was struck down, due to anti-trust concerns. This is a similar situation, however, it will all depend on the FCC’s interpretation how digital media is perceived. The stock has reacted accordingly with the “good news”, however, I don’t know if the FCC will let it happen. My gut feel is that this will play out for awhile, and the FCC won’t allow it. Even if the FCC changed its rules and allowed it, there would be anti-trust concerns, which I don’t think either provider could satisfy. Time will tell.

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